Kenny Golladay and Chad Williams are emblematic of prospects in this tier. I’ve decided to lump the top six picks together in this round because there wasn’t that much change in the results from 13-15 and 16-18, so we went with a bigger sample size at the top-half of the second-round. Going through this range, there were 24 running backs drafted, with the best ones being Kerryon Johnson, Jordan Howard, Lamar Miller, David Johnson, and Kenyan Drake. In 2020, we should see 16 or more. Don’t get me wrong, there are a few guys in this range who will pan out, as Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Michael Gallup were all drafted in this range, but for every one of them, there are six guys like Justin Hunter and Donte Moncrief. That amounts to just 43.6 games per player, which continues to dip, as finding a multi-contract player gets harder and harder at the running back position. On average, the four backs have already returned almost 32 points of dynasty value already. The receivers being taken in this range pre-NFL Draft are Jalen Reagor, Tee Higgins, Henry Ruggs, Justin Jefferson, and Laviska Shenault. Do you match up player vs. player and compare them that way? Last season there were 13. It was not so long ago that we would see three to five running backs in the first round of almost every draft. That is an absolutely massive number. Both came from smaller schools, possessed intriguing physical traits, and went off the board two picks apart in the same draft class. This is the area of the draft where you’re selecting guys you know are going to be backups on the team they’re drafted to. The ADP data used is post-NFL Draft, as it’s the most accurate source to what dynasty rookie drafts typically look like. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:"fpros_cards"}; Follow us on Twitter @FantasyPros for exclusive advice and contests, © Copyright 2010-2020 FantasyPros.com So, no matter how good of a talent scout you think you might be, understand that the odds are stacked against you when finding a receiver in this range. Common sense dictates we value Bishop Sankey (the first back off the board in 2014) drastically different than we did Ezekiel Elliott based upon where they were drafted. When we get into the second round of rookie drafts, highly-drafted tight ends start to make more sense. Looking at rookie values through this lens also provides real insight into how we should value each rookie pick in a given year compared to NFL veterans in dynasty trades. Well, that’s up to you, but this should tell you if you’re on the better end of the deal. Over the last four drafts, we have had nine running backs selected between pick #24 and pick #48. Going further back increases our sample sizes for each tier but potentially biases the sample because the positional values have changed over time. Dillon. Yes, he had a historical end to his 2020 season, but that doesn’t erase the rest of his career. But here’s the thing about this sample size. Trading down to add extra picks to target Day 2 wide receivers has been a winning strategy. In just the past four draft classes, we have eight second-round wide receivers who have a total dynasty value of over 20. In this article, we will look at recent history to provide some context as to what dynasty value we can expect to see from each positional tier. However, the idea is to understand the historical dynasty values of players in relation to their positional draft capital and the realistic range of outcomes for each positional tier.
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